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HONG KONG, Sep 5 (Reuters) Hong Kong's pro-democracy camp faces a stern test in city-wide legislative elections on Sunday, with rival pro-Beijing candidates poised to further erode the camp's waning influence over the city's political future.
At stake is the democrats' control of one-third of the legislature, without which Hong Kong's reformists would lose a crucial veto bloc over political reforms aimed at moulding a model of universal suffrage by 2017, with Beijing's consent.
''The election is critical,'' said Anson Chan, Hong Kong's respected ex-head of the civil service and a former legislator during a recent street rally in the city's financial district.
Hong Kong which switched from British to Chinese rule in 1997, enjoys greater political freedoms than other Chinese city, yet these polls could mark a turning point for the pan-Democratic camp -- whose strength has waned over the past year.
Chan said a failure to win at least 21 of the 60 seats up for grabs would strip the Democrats of one of its last levers of power to ''effectively monitor and keep watch'' on the policies of the unelected, largely pro-Beijing government.
''The symbolic meaning is important. The democrats have an important opposition role not because they have enough votes in legco, but because they command a majority of public support,'' said Ma Ngok, a political scientist with Chinese University.
Despite the plunging popularity of Hong Kong's leader Donald Tsang after recent policy missteps -- the democrats have failed to capitalise -- instead of being hit by infighting and a post-Olympics halo effect that could help pro-Beijing candidates.
Beijing's decision last December to grant Hong Kong universal suffrage in 2017 also took much steam out of the democrats' electoral campaign, with livelihood rather than democracy issues now dominating party slogans and placards lining the streets.
''They are in a sense fighting with one of their hands tied behind their back,'' said Steve Tsang, a Research Fellow in Modern Chinese Studies at St Antony's College in Oxford.
Despite such anxieties, some political analysts expect the pan-democrats to scrape through. And even if they don't, Hong Kong's ''people power'' or watchdog role shouldn't be underestimated in standing up to contentious public policies.
In 2003, half a million people spilled onto the streets to oppose proposed anti-subversion laws deemed draconian, causing the laws to be scrapped and several officials to resign.
''If you have policy matters that create absolute outrage in Hong Kong society, you will have hugely embarrassing demonstrations that will force the government to back down anyway,'' said Tsang of Oxford University.
''The actual percentage of seats that are being controlled by the so-called Democrats in the legislative council is not in my view as important as it's been made out to be,'' Tsang added.
Economically too, analysts think a weakened opposition presence won't likely heighten business risks or hurt sentiment.
''I don't see a paradigm shift in the political landscape that will change economic policy,'' said Paul Tang, a Senior Economist at the Bank of East Asia. Hong Kong's economy is now in its worst shape since the SARS outbreak in 2003, with inflation of over 6 percent and a weak stock market which has hit consumption.
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